A couple of decades ago I read a slim volume called ‘The Limits to Prediction’ (I think, or something like that), which presented half a dozen papers on the art of predicting future events, and the success that was achieved. Sadly, all but one of the papers reported very low levels of correctness in predictions.<\/p>\n
So I should have known better than to try my own hand at predicting the future. In the struggle between Blu-ray and HD DVD, I predicted, either both would succeed, or both would fail. I expected hybrid players to make the disc format irrelevant. Despite the recent announcement by Warner Bros that it would be going exclusively to Blu-ray, I expected that the supporters of HD DVD would be stubborn enough to keep it going for quite a bit longer.<\/p>\n
But now quite a few news outlets are reporting that Toshiba will be abandoning HD DVD later in the year. I am seeking confirmation from Toshiba, so this is yet to be confirmed.<\/p>\n
Still, if it is true, then that would suggest that all my predications were incorrect!<\/p>\n
The question of what one does with one’s HD DVDs will require some answering. Will there be a ‘swap’ option to Blu-ray? If the reports are correct and HD DVD will soon be out of the running, this should increase the likelihood of a HD format succeeding, since there will be less consumer confusion. But given my past predictions, perhaps you ought to ignore that last sentence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A couple of decades ago I read a slim volume called ‘The Limits to Prediction’ (I think, or something like that), which presented half a dozen papers on the art of predicting future events, and the success that was achieved. … Continue reading